Research on Carbon Emission Forecast for Residential Buildings in Anhui Province in 2024 Based on SARIMA

Abstract

In the context of China's commitment to achieving the "dual carbon" objectives for green, healthy, and sustainable development—specifically, reaching peak carbon emissions by 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060—the construction industry, a cornerstone of the national economy, confronts multifaceted challenges including elevated carbon emissions, environmental pollution, excessive resource depletion, and a scarcity of specialized personnel. These impediments not only curb the industry's structural transformation and upgrading but also obstruct the progression towards a low-carbon economy. Consequently, in harmony with contemporary trends, the promotion of industrialization in low-carbon building practices emerges as a pivotal pathway and strategic choice for the construction industry to advance towards green and efficient development paradigms. Despite China's nascent strides in the industrialization of low-carbon buildings, it still lags behind in global comparisons, characterized by a late inception and a relatively low overall level of development, thereby encountering a multitude of obstacles and challenges. Within this framework, this academic endeavor focuses intently on residential buildings within Anhui Province. By meticulously amassing data pertaining to carbon emissions from residential buildings in Anhui Province spanning from 2016 to 2022, and employing the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model to forecast carbon emissions for the year 2023, it is discerned that the growth rate of carbon emissions has markedly decelerated in recent years, approaching a plateauing trend. Furthermore, this study contributes insightful recommendations tailored to the current trajectory of green building development in Anhui Province.