Forecasting the Scale of China’s National College Entrance Examination (Gaokao) Registrations and New Employment Population Trends (2026-2030) Based on Demographic Structural Changes

Abstract

As the number of applicants for the 2025 National College Entrance Examination (Gaokao) registered its first decline in a decade, China’s education and labor markets have reached a critical juncture in demographic transformation. This study utilizes birth data from 2008 to 2012, gross enrollment rates in senior secondary education, and historical data on further education and employment to construct a cohort-component forecasting model. The research predicts that Gaokao registrations from 2026 to 2030 will follow a fluctuating downward trend, maintaining a range between 12.6 million and 13 million. Meanwhile, the annual new employment population is expected to stabilize between 10.8 million and 11 million. This study aims to provide quantitative references for educational resource allocation and the macro-control of the future labor market.